Replication Data for: Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictionsdoi:10.13130/RD_UNIMI/ZSCGJ7UNIMI Dataverse2023-02-071Giuliani, Marco, 2023, "Replication Data for: Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions", https://doi.org/10.13130/RD_UNIMI/ZSCGJ7, UNIMI Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:VC4hN4LLbVkgYc6MF6nhSQ== [fileUNF]Replication Data for: Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictionsdoi:10.13130/RD_UNIMI/ZSCGJ7Giuliani, MarcoUNIMI DataverseGiuliani, MarcoGiuliani, Marco2023-02-07Social SciencesEuropean electionPollsAccuracyPrediction errorPollsters have been recently accused of delivering poor electoral predictions. We argue that one of the reasons for their failures lies in the difficulty of including an updated deep understanding of electoral behaviour. Even if pollsters’ predictions are not forecasts produced by models, the set of choices needed to produce their estimates is not indifferent to a theoretical comprehension of electoral dynamics. We exemplify this lack of theory by using an original dataset consisting of 1057 party*poll observations in the case of the last European election. Pollsters failed to account for what we know about second-order elections, thus overestimating government and big parties, which normally obtain poor results in European elections, and underestimating new and Eurosceptic ones, which usually perform well.CC0 WaiverGiuliani, M. (2019) Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 29(2): 162-178. DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2018.1466786EP2014 polls.tab114046text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:VC4hN4LLbVkgYc6MF6nhSQ==Id1.01140.00.0329.23395936628407570.51140.0.570.5UNF:6:FwLM6SeNqlGdXlnd7qRG7Q==WaveUNF:6:hFXQ6vx6zClWROb1+RIqNA==CountryUNF:6:waz8hzVzfBc0aVBM4PDv0w==CountryUNF:6:+baubArV7jtrR+2js7hp9A==Country num1140.028.08.44736236547051815.0.1.015.483333333333410.017Lithuania1622Portugal2428United Kingdom493Bulgaria488Estonia1420Netherlands5026Spain11018Luxembourg71Austria607Denmark6413Hungary2423Romania455Cyprus2115Italy10419Malta321Poland4810France6416Latvia712Greece10414Ireland322Belgium2627Sweden6024Slovakia406Czech Republik2425Slovenia364Croatia1211Germany249Finland24UNF:6:n08GnLBY+YkrmMrYl8VNsA==CountrywaveUNF:6:8ZcfWV0gJNZek/+KKJR4zA==Countrywave num137.068.5964912280701240.040786777531661.01140.067.00.0.93LTVilmorus 20/3891ITTECNE 6/58103PLEstymator 20/58117SEDemoskop 7/51032DKYouGov 6/5814BGSova Harris 28/48120SESIFO 21/510136UKTNS 19/57131UKComRes 18/5749ESCeleste-Tel 16/51128DKGreens 1/58123SIDELO 19/5942ELPalmos 22/5864FRIfop 23/5820CZSanep 13/48122SEYouGov 6/51090ITSWG 7/5883ITEpoke 8/58111PTUni catolica 19/5692LTSpinter 17/4819CZHerzmann 13/58116ROIRES 26/39124SIDela Stik 8/4998NLGfK 20/41065FRIpsos 22/5879ITDEMOS 7/5823DEInfratest 14/5651ESDemoscopia 30/4116ATUnique 17/51077IEMilward 14/58128SKMVK 16/51050ESDYM 18/51156ESNC Report 17/511104PLHH 22/58107PLTNS 14/58132UKICM 19/574ATMeinunsgraum 8/510121SESKOP 24/410102PLCBOS 14/5874HUTarki 15/5659FIYLE 20/58135UKSurvation 20/5778IERED C 1/5863FRHarris 22/5852ESFeedback 8/511115ROINSCOP 7/5915CYANT1 15/5773HUNezopont 18/5617CYIMR 14/57105PLMillwardBrown 21/5866FROpinionWay 16/583ATMarket 14/51034EETNS 17/57119SENovus 22/510113ROCSOP 2/59125SIEpiscenter 12/5986ITISPO 5/5833EEEstland 16/4754ESInvymark 19/51130DKVoxmeter 10/5897NLDe Stemming 21/41099NLIpsos 15/5101ATGallup 15/510114ROIMAS 4/4968FRYouGov 6/5816CYCyBC 12/4747ELVPRC 13/5813BGIMP 13/5860FIYouGov 6/5870HRIpsos 11/5675IEB&A 15/5811BGExacta 19/58109PTEurosondagem 20/5662FRCSA 22/5827DKGallup 9/5844ELPulse 23/5895LVFaktu 28/475ATOGM 11/5107BE rtbf 14/41380ITDatamedia 5/5887ITIpsos 9/5896MTMalta today 30/04376IEIpsos 13/5861FRBVA 16/589BGAfis 13/5889ITPiepoli 5/58134UKPopulus 6/47133UKOpinium 19/5731DKWilke 16/38126SINinamedia 24/4969HRCRODemoskop 4/56130SKPolis 5/5102ATHajek 15/51035ELALCO 22/58108PTAximage 22/56129SKMedian 6/41057ESSigma-2 15/51139ELMRB 23/58137UKYouGov 21/5718CZCVVM 14/4825DKA&B 1/4836ELE-voice 15/58127SKFocus 13/510112ROCSCI 22/5955ESMetroscopia 13/51153ESGAD3 16/51148ESCIS 26/41140ELMarc 22/5837ELGPO 23/588BEdedicated 20/51358FITietoy 17/5822DEINSA 14/4684ITEuromedia 7/5871HUIpsos 13/5610BGAlpha Research 20/5872HUMedian 29/4685ITIPR 9/5821DEFGW 21/56100NLPeil.nl 13/41081ITDemopolis 8/5888ITLorien 4/5824DEYouGov 9/5629DKMegafon 24/48106PLPPW 22/5843ELPublic Issue 22/5812BGGallup 10/4867FRTNS 11/5841ELMetron 22/5826DKEpinion 7/5882ITEMG 8/5894LUTns 16/4738ELKapa 18/58110PTPitagorica 18/56118SEIpsos 21/51046ELUni of Macedonia 14/4845ELRass 21/58101NLTNS 13/510UNF:6:6VM0L/+imZ3oYIqdSlPQLw==Size of the sample (hundreds)4.010.73999977111816464.0135.09.7281804093280681005.0.13.733442809925753UNF:6:SOe1F9/hF+Pl0o+J0Jb4uQ==Last day of pollUNF:6:FlZ4+ZmWbEfavIOr7WZwBw==Day of electionUNF:6:+59S77y19o56NtvWoInTkg==Days before the EP election (tens)1.44223165835703341140.00.07.01.19999992847442630.09999999403953552.1.6665789251003353UNF:6:U/uKzMUlNyHBiTjWdfsmng==Last general electionUNF:6:aHltPZnkGGt1AIUcbtYk7Q==Days since last election1140.00.049.0714.01477.0781.5491228070182361.147537272366.UNF:6:bw1JpQWsMYhB2Zin/x8hVg==Pct of term22.9864570421301050.048.4246575342465849.764287430905963.35616438356164492.05479452054794.1140.0UNF:6:4qseaty7KeTS9QlxN6Z7KQ==Contemporaneous elections.0.01140.01.00.476060771930357840.00.00.34649122807017474UNF:6:yOAaCCXNyH99D7hax5n3JQ==PartyUNF:6:3G0ZcusiSSUss8m6OrnzPQ==Government party.0.00.43911444548546271.00.00.00.260526315789473831140.0UNF:6:uKIpKGEiOxU2DnMAbKDdzg==new0.20512820512820560.09.01.01131.00.00.40397390655488613.UNF:6:A46cYbGf4F17fjaGlCb4rg==size10.9662367081894860.011.793079319294243.8.01132.06.90000009536743254.83000183105469UNF:6:NM+/N28S5pJ6WQpfMhsz0w==Not present in the previous national election1.00.00.40148592662554820.00.201754385964912271140.0.0.0UNF:6:IS2l2Wva+Kdf3qrcw/Nlyw==Not present in the previous two national elections0.0.0.01140.01.00.456910613759416330.00.2964912280701757UNF:6:2zUcSQrs8eG6ia0zu2c8Bw==Not present in the previous Europeanl election0.00.322807017543860.00.46775482042570511140.0.0.01.0UNF:6:R0SkE+6f92/kstClhJ8BCg==Scale of novelty0.8210526315789463.0.1140.01.18577119407908540.00.00.0UNF:6:BvpqtR/NiZfkoCUhhKwMfg==Poll prediction8.010.22922774434398412.1305676442762531057.083.00.2.57.0UNF:6:yAypt+qb0beKAOjW98fU8Q==Pct EP2014 election11.2809973521624020.187.053.397.75.9.57112772971631133.0UNF:6:XzXgs+Jk96hJGcTXLMk8pQ==Turnout EP201445.3914.7970855103523441140.043.700780701754390.0.90.013.05UNF:6:pJbcD6ILRZFl1FXul7oG0w==Delta pct (poll-ep2014)-22.6122.6.83.01057.03.4067354130447640.298874172185430550.16000000000000014UNF:6:tXxOrNdv/HMH0iI/8F5a0w==Sign of error83.00.9956435884458948.1.00.070009460737937391.0-1.01057.0UNF:6:Zn8pGbfUVzUMT0sOzExnBQ==Positive error1.00.01.00.4991697042329787483.0.1057.00.5326395458845794UNF:6:r91Uhh4LbkF5pXxBlc2Jbw==Negative error0.46263008514664156.83.01057.00.49883755816390930.01.00.0UNF:6:gSLYdAefQbBUe2juwxYXYQ==Margin of error4.880114555358887209.00.166468381881713870.7857965743646538931.01.6931432167390231.5318174362182617.UNF:6:QZLBB/ArFq2KjB36rZmd5Q==Bias0.01.00.50026614770714260.0209.0.0.498388829215897931.0UNF:6:c33654q2+QQXgczjehrODg==Sign of bias1.0-1.0209.00.07089151450053690.7027757255883998931.00.0.UNF:6:OvHONVVLKXO5DRNrlvJU6w==Positive bias0.0931.00.45148542702350111.00.2846401718582169.209.00.0UNF:6:jGil5Ro3P96x4w75a6P42A==Negative bias.0.21374865735767976209.01.00.41017176730539834931.00.00.0UNF:6:PTXHGWHDPW6bg8JitYepvw==Accuracy index-2.1486897320859481.87139935715797740.40968373198883791057.00.0185754653731232640.00320738892299264.83.0UNF:6:vG8N0Apou2wOwLGMIQomNA==Absolute error83.00.0.1.46000003814697272.569156995995032.25607379710930822.6100006103515621057.0UNF:6:mj6Kez3u3M1YoqtbMph8JA==Squared error2.13159990310668951057.00.083.011.6841919963217511.2120971679687535.56818202302898.UNF:6:bJqOBv5jD9QsEh690OMeQg==Euposition1109.031.01.0.5.470588207244871.9307155450379117.04.667063403364115UNF:6:F/4e1GkroAcQU0qkeh2YlA==Euroscepticism1.02.05010001394440573.4598479698852596.1140.08.00.02.5714287757873597UNF:6:WoD08F3LthW4xDCMoFA8pA==Qualitative evaluation of Euroscepticism1077.01.00.01.01.0.1.063.0UNF:6:DN1EbLBFW+u1amh4JNIWFw==euroclear0.02.04.00.87641685326596960.01140.0.1.9296514702242638UNF:6:AZHrLhS9NTA3sIOEWhJB2A==Preferential1.0.0.01140.00.61052631578947511.00.00.4878449538977367UNF:6:zZUseNcZaNuQ1q1mLu/alQ==Compulsory1.0.0.00.181578947368420421140.00.38566631381848790.00.0UNF:6:25U1Jfg1lYyfmsmA3qumuQ==.237.01.0793786465688167903.0-0.91629070043563842.14710021018981932.16337868676893354.004237651824951UNF:6:4v69JQOG4SdSfBdIUM2TbQ==8.0259.21220769146110.01132.0440.21211979021655.47.610000610351563006.3291015625UNF:6:/yylQpb/0HumnYepT7fZkg==EP2014 polls do.doStata syntaxapplication/x-stata-syntaxEP2014 pools codebook.pdfCodebookapplication/pdf