Replication Data for: Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions (ICPSR doi:10.13130/RD_UNIMI/ZSCGJ7)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions

Identification Number:

doi:10.13130/RD_UNIMI/ZSCGJ7

Distributor:

UNIMI Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2023-02-07

Version:

1

Bibliographic Citation:

Giuliani, Marco, 2023, "Replication Data for: Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions", https://doi.org/10.13130/RD_UNIMI/ZSCGJ7, UNIMI Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:VC4hN4LLbVkgYc6MF6nhSQ== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions

Identification Number:

doi:10.13130/RD_UNIMI/ZSCGJ7

Authoring Entity:

Giuliani, Marco (University of Milano)

Distributor:

UNIMI Dataverse

Access Authority:

Giuliani, Marco

Depositor:

Giuliani, Marco

Date of Deposit:

2023-02-07

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences, European election, Polls, Accuracy, Prediction error

Abstract:

Pollsters have been recently accused of delivering poor electoral predictions. We argue that one of the reasons for their failures lies in the difficulty of including an updated deep understanding of electoral behaviour. Even if pollsters’ predictions are not forecasts produced by models, the set of choices needed to produce their estimates is not indifferent to a theoretical comprehension of electoral dynamics. We exemplify this lack of theory by using an original dataset consisting of 1057 party*poll observations in the case of the last European election. Pollsters failed to account for what we know about second-order elections, thus overestimating government and big parties, which normally obtain poor results in European elections, and underestimating new and Eurosceptic ones, which usually perform well.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

CC0 Waiver

Other Study Description Materials

Related Publications

Citation

Bibliographic Citation:

Giuliani, M. (2019) Making sense of pollsters’ errors. An analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 29(2): 162-178. DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2018.1466786

File Description--f17078

File: EP2014 polls.tab

  • Number of cases: 1140

  • No. of variables per record: 46

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:VC4hN4LLbVkgYc6MF6nhSQ==

Variable Description

List of Variables:

Variables

Id

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; Max. 1140.0; StDev 329.23395936628407; Mean 570.5; Valid 1140.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:FwLM6SeNqlGdXlnd7qRG7Q==

Wave

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:hFXQ6vx6zClWROb1+RIqNA==

Country

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:waz8hzVzfBc0aVBM4PDv0w==

Country

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:+baubArV7jtrR+2js7hp9A==

Country num

f17078 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

17.

Lithuania

16

22.

Portugal

24

28.

United Kingdom

49

3.

Bulgaria

48

8.

Estonia

14

20.

Netherlands

50

26.

Spain

110

18.

Luxembourg

7

1.

Austria

60

7.

Denmark

64

13.

Hungary

24

23.

Romania

45

5.

Cyprus

21

15.

Italy

104

19.

Malta

3

21.

Poland

48

10.

France

64

16.

Latvia

7

12.

Greece

104

14.

Ireland

32

2.

Belgium

26

27.

Sweden

60

24.

Slovakia

40

6.

Czech Republik

24

25.

Slovenia

36

4.

Croatia

12

11.

Germany

24

9.

Finland

24

Summary Statistics: Valid 1140.0; Max. 28.0; StDev 8.447362365470518; Min. 1.0; Mean 15.48333333333341;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:n08GnLBY+YkrmMrYl8VNsA==

Countrywave

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:8ZcfWV0gJNZek/+KKJR4zA==

Countrywave num

f17078 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

93.

LTVilmorus 20/3

8

91.

ITTECNE 6/5

8

103.

PLEstymator 20/5

8

117.

SEDemoskop 7/5

10

32.

DKYouGov 6/5

8

14.

BGSova Harris 28/4

8

120.

SESIFO 21/5

10

136.

UKTNS 19/5

7

131.

UKComRes 18/5

7

49.

ESCeleste-Tel 16/5

11

28.

DKGreens 1/5

8

123.

SIDELO 19/5

9

42.

ELPalmos 22/5

8

64.

FRIfop 23/5

8

20.

CZSanep 13/4

8

122.

SEYouGov 6/5

10

90.

ITSWG 7/5

8

83.

ITEpoke 8/5

8

111.

PTUni catolica 19/5

6

92.

LTSpinter 17/4

8

19.

CZHerzmann 13/5

8

116.

ROIRES 26/3

9

124.

SIDela Stik 8/4

9

98.

NLGfK 20/4

10

65.

FRIpsos 22/5

8

79.

ITDEMOS 7/5

8

23.

DEInfratest 14/5

6

51.

ESDemoscopia 30/4

11

6.

ATUnique 17/5

10

77.

IEMilward 14/5

8

128.

SKMVK 16/5

10

50.

ESDYM 18/5

11

56.

ESNC Report 17/5

11

104.

PLHH 22/5

8

107.

PLTNS 14/5

8

132.

UKICM 19/5

7

4.

ATMeinunsgraum 8/5

10

121.

SESKOP 24/4

10

102.

PLCBOS 14/5

8

74.

HUTarki 15/5

6

59.

FIYLE 20/5

8

135.

UKSurvation 20/5

7

78.

IERED C 1/5

8

63.

FRHarris 22/5

8

52.

ESFeedback 8/5

11

115.

ROINSCOP 7/5

9

15.

CYANT1 15/5

7

73.

HUNezopont 18/5

6

17.

CYIMR 14/5

7

105.

PLMillwardBrown 21/5

8

66.

FROpinionWay 16/5

8

3.

ATMarket 14/5

10

34.

EETNS 17/5

7

119.

SENovus 22/5

10

113.

ROCSOP 2/5

9

125.

SIEpiscenter 12/5

9

86.

ITISPO 5/5

8

33.

EEEstland 16/4

7

54.

ESInvymark 19/5

11

30.

DKVoxmeter 10/5

8

97.

NLDe Stemming 21/4

10

99.

NLIpsos 15/5

10

1.

ATGallup 15/5

10

114.

ROIMAS 4/4

9

68.

FRYouGov 6/5

8

16.

CYCyBC 12/4

7

47.

ELVPRC 13/5

8

13.

BGIMP 13/5

8

60.

FIYouGov 6/5

8

70.

HRIpsos 11/5

6

75.

IEB&A 15/5

8

11.

BGExacta 19/5

8

109.

PTEurosondagem 20/5

6

62.

FRCSA 22/5

8

27.

DKGallup 9/5

8

44.

ELPulse 23/5

8

95.

LVFaktu 28/4

7

5.

ATOGM 11/5

10

7.

BE rtbf 14/4

13

80.

ITDatamedia 5/5

8

87.

ITIpsos 9/5

8

96.

MTMalta today 30/04

3

76.

IEIpsos 13/5

8

61.

FRBVA 16/5

8

9.

BGAfis 13/5

8

89.

ITPiepoli 5/5

8

134.

UKPopulus 6/4

7

133.

UKOpinium 19/5

7

31.

DKWilke 16/3

8

126.

SINinamedia 24/4

9

69.

HRCRODemoskop 4/5

6

130.

SKPolis 5/5

10

2.

ATHajek 15/5

10

35.

ELALCO 22/5

8

108.

PTAximage 22/5

6

129.

SKMedian 6/4

10

57.

ESSigma-2 15/5

11

39.

ELMRB 23/5

8

137.

UKYouGov 21/5

7

18.

CZCVVM 14/4

8

25.

DKA&B 1/4

8

36.

ELE-voice 15/5

8

127.

SKFocus 13/5

10

112.

ROCSCI 22/5

9

55.

ESMetroscopia 13/5

11

53.

ESGAD3 16/5

11

48.

ESCIS 26/4

11

40.

ELMarc 22/5

8

37.

ELGPO 23/5

8

8.

BEdedicated 20/5

13

58.

FITietoy 17/5

8

22.

DEINSA 14/4

6

84.

ITEuromedia 7/5

8

71.

HUIpsos 13/5

6

10.

BGAlpha Research 20/5

8

72.

HUMedian 29/4

6

85.

ITIPR 9/5

8

21.

DEFGW 21/5

6

100.

NLPeil.nl 13/4

10

81.

ITDemopolis 8/5

8

88.

ITLorien 4/5

8

24.

DEYouGov 9/5

6

29.

DKMegafon 24/4

8

106.

PLPPW 22/5

8

43.

ELPublic Issue 22/5

8

12.

BGGallup 10/4

8

67.

FRTNS 11/5

8

41.

ELMetron 22/5

8

26.

DKEpinion 7/5

8

82.

ITEMG 8/5

8

94.

LUTns 16/4

7

38.

ELKapa 18/5

8

110.

PTPitagorica 18/5

6

118.

SEIpsos 21/5

10

46.

ELUni of Macedonia 14/4

8

45.

ELRass 21/5

8

101.

NLTNS 13/5

10

Summary Statistics: Max. 137.0; Mean 68.59649122807012; StDev 40.04078677753166; Min. 1.0; Valid 1140.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:6VM0L/+imZ3oYIqdSlPQLw==

Size of the sample (hundreds)

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 4.0; Max. 64.0; StDev 9.728180409328068; Valid 1005.0; Mean 13.733442809925753

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:SOe1F9/hF+Pl0o+J0Jb4uQ==

Last day of poll

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:FlZ4+ZmWbEfavIOr7WZwBw==

Day of election

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:+59S77y19o56NtvWoInTkg==

Days before the EP election (tens)

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.4422316583570334; Valid 1140.0; Max. 7.0; Min. 0.09999999403953552; Mean 1.6665789251003353

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:U/uKzMUlNyHBiTjWdfsmng==

Last general election

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:aHltPZnkGGt1AIUcbtYk7Q==

Days since last election

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1140.0; Min. 49.0; Max. 1477.0; Mean 781.5491228070182; StDev 361.147537272366;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:bw1JpQWsMYhB2Zin/x8hVg==

Pct of term

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 22.986457042130105; Mean 49.76428743090596; Min. 3.356164383561644; Max. 92.05479452054794; Valid 1140.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:4qseaty7KeTS9QlxN6Z7KQ==

Contemporaneous elections

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1140.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.47606077193035784; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.34649122807017474

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:yOAaCCXNyH99D7hax5n3JQ==

Party

f17078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:3G0ZcusiSSUss8m6OrnzPQ==

Government party

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4391144454854627; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.26052631578947383; Valid 1140.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:uKIpKGEiOxU2DnMAbKDdzg==

new

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.2051282051282056; Max. 1.0; Valid 1131.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.40397390655488613;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:A46cYbGf4F17fjaGlCb4rg==

size

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 10.966236708189486; Min. 0.0; StDev 11.793079319294243; Valid 1132.0; Max. 54.83000183105469

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:NM+/N28S5pJ6WQpfMhsz0w==

Not present in the previous national election

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4014859266255482; Mean 0.20175438596491227; Valid 1140.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:IS2l2Wva+Kdf3qrcw/Nlyw==

Not present in the previous two national elections

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 1140.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.45691061375941633; Mean 0.2964912280701757

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2zUcSQrs8eG6ia0zu2c8Bw==

Not present in the previous Europeanl election

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.32280701754386; StDev 0.4677548204257051; Valid 1140.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:R0SkE+6f92/kstClhJ8BCg==

Scale of novelty

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.821052631578946; Max. 3.0; Valid 1140.0; StDev 1.1857711940790854; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BvpqtR/NiZfkoCUhhKwMfg==

Poll prediction

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 10.229227744343984; Mean 12.130567644276253; Valid 1057.0; Min. 0.2; Max. 57.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:yAypt+qb0beKAOjW98fU8Q==

Pct EP2014 election

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 11.280997352162402; Min. 0.18; Max. 53.39; StDev 9.5711277297163; Valid 1133.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XzXgs+Jk96hJGcTXLMk8pQ==

Turnout EP2014

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 14.797085510352344; Valid 1140.0; Mean 43.70078070175439; Max. 90.0; Min. 13.05

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:pJbcD6ILRZFl1FXul7oG0w==

Delta pct (poll-ep2014)

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -22.61; Max. 22.6; Valid 1057.0; StDev 3.406735413044764; Mean 0.29887417218543055;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:tXxOrNdv/HMH0iI/8F5a0w==

Sign of error

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.9956435884458948; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.07000946073793739; Min. -1.0; Valid 1057.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Zn8pGbfUVzUMT0sOzExnBQ==

Positive error

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.49916970423297874; Valid 1057.0; Mean 0.5326395458845794

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:r91Uhh4LbkF5pXxBlc2Jbw==

Negative error

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.46263008514664156; Valid 1057.0; StDev 0.4988375581639093; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:gSLYdAefQbBUe2juwxYXYQ==

Margin of error

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 4.880114555358887; Min. 0.16646838188171387; StDev 0.7857965743646538; Valid 931.0; Mean 1.693143216739023;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:QZLBB/ArFq2KjB36rZmd5Q==

Bias

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.5002661477071426; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.498388829215897; Valid 931.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:c33654q2+QQXgczjehrODg==

Sign of bias

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. -1.0; Mean 0.0708915145005369; StDev 0.7027757255883998; Valid 931.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OvHONVVLKXO5DRNrlvJU6w==

Positive bias

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 931.0; StDev 0.4514854270235011; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.2846401718582169; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jGil5Ro3P96x4w75a6P42A==

Negative bias

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.21374865735767976; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.41017176730539834; Valid 931.0; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:PTXHGWHDPW6bg8JitYepvw==

Accuracy index

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -2.148689732085948; Max. 1.8713993571579774; StDev 0.4096837319888379; Valid 1057.0; Mean 0.00320738892299264;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:vG8N0Apou2wOwLGMIQomNA==

Absolute error

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 2.56915699599503; Mean 2.256073797109308; Max. 22.610000610351562; Valid 1057.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:mj6Kez3u3M1YoqtbMph8JA==

Squared error

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1057.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 11.6841919963217; Max. 511.21209716796875; StDev 35.56818202302898;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:bJqOBv5jD9QsEh690OMeQg==

Euposition

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1109.0; Min. 1.0; StDev 1.930715545037911; Max. 7.0; Mean 4.667063403364115

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:F/4e1GkroAcQU0qkeh2YlA==

Euroscepticism

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; StDev 2.0501000139444057; Mean 3.4598479698852596; Valid 1140.0; Max. 8.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WoD08F3LthW4xDCMoFA8pA==

Qualitative evaluation of Euroscepticism

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.0; Min. 1.0; Mean 1.0; Valid 63.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DN1EbLBFW+u1amh4JNIWFw==

euroclear

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Max. 4.0; StDev 0.8764168532659696; Valid 1140.0; Mean 1.9296514702242638

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:AZHrLhS9NTA3sIOEWhJB2A==

Preferential

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 1140.0; Mean 0.6105263157894751; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4878449538977367

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zZUseNcZaNuQ1q1mLu/alQ==

Compulsory

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.18157894736842042; Valid 1140.0; StDev 0.3856663138184879;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:25U1Jfg1lYyfmsmA3qumuQ==

logsize

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.0793786465688167; Valid 903.0; Min. -0.9162907004356384; Mean 2.1633786867689335; Max. 4.004237651824951

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:4v69JQOG4SdSfBdIUM2TbQ==

sqrsize

f17078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 259.2122076914611; Min. 0.0; Valid 1132.0; StDev 440.21211979021655; Max. 3006.3291015625

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:/yylQpb/0HumnYepT7fZkg==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

EP2014 polls do.do

Text:

Stata syntax

Notes:

application/x-stata-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

EP2014 pools codebook.pdf

Text:

Codebook

Notes:

application/pdf